- After a recent dry stretch, Southern California will turn wetter this week.
- A slow-moving storm will spread rain into S. California beginning Monday night.
- Locally heavy rain, possibly some thunderstorms, may trigger local flooding and minor debris flows.
- This is likely to be the heaviest rain in Southern California since Christmas week.
- Rain is also expected to soak the deserts of southern Nevada and Arizona.
This week, Southern California may see their most soaking rain since Christmas after parts of Northern California picked up their first rain since January.
To say it's been dry recently in the Golden State is an understatement. The state just had its driest February in 126 years, according to NOAA.
(MORE: Some in California Were Completely Dry in February)
Drought has also returned. About a third of California is in moderate drought, and nearly 70% of the Golden State is abnormally dry, according to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor.
ca_drought_0303.jpg
(U.S. Drought Monitor)Reservoirs remain in fairly good shape, but the snow-water equivalent (how much water is in the snowpack) in the Sierra Nevada is about half of what is expected at this time of year.
It didn't amount to much, but San Francisco's 0.18 inch of rain late Friday into early Saturday was its first measurable rain since January 28, ending its fourth-longest winter dry streak of 37 straight days, according to Jan Null, a California-based consultant meteorologist.
Wetter Week Ahead
Last Friday and Saturday's Pacific frontal system was rather weak and dry. A wetter storm system is on the way this week.
A low-pressure system will carve southward off the California coast, then will take its time lumbering east through Southern California, northwest Mexico and the Desert Southwest through late week.
This low will also likely tap some deeper subtropical moisture, which could enhance precipitation totals.
CA_Precip_Returns_0308-am.jpg
Precipitation will begin to increase on Monday night and is expected to continue at times through Thursday in central and Southern California, as well as parts of southern Nevada and Arizona. Thunderstorms are possible, at times.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)
We expect most of Southern California, including the L.A. Basin and San Diego metro areas, as well as parts of Arizona to pick up at least an inch of rain through Thursday. Some heavier amounts in higher terrain on south and southwest-facing slopes is possible.
Flash flooding of flood-prone, low-lying streets, freeways and normally dry washes and arroyos, is possible in some areas. Minor debris flows off areas recently charred by wildfires are also possible.
However, other than some Sierra snow, much of Northern California is expected to see little, if any, precipitation from this system.
Rain and Snow Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain and snow may fall.)There are indications that a wetter pattern will generally be more likely heading into mid-March in California, which would also help alleviate some of the concerns associated with the recent dry pattern.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has highlighted Southern California and the Desert Southwest as having an above-average chance of precipitation in both the 6- to 10-day and 8- to 14-day outlooks. Parts of Northern California may, unfortunately, be drier than normal through mid-March.
Precipitation Outlook
(From NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.)The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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Southern California May See Its Biggest Soaking This Week Since Christmas; Some Flooding, Debris Flows Possible - The Weather Channel
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