Wednesday forecast: Heat index values in the triple digits for many - WIBW

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TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) - Hot this afternoon with triple digit heat indices with severe weather tonight. 60-70+ mph are likely especially in north-central KS.

8 Day July 8, 2020(WIBW)

Today: Mostly Sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. Winds S 5-15 mph. Heat indices 96-104°.

Tonight: Storms will begin to make its way into north-central Kansas after 10pm (although there does remain differences in the models on if storms will start to affect areas near the Nebraska border between 10pm-12am or 1am-3am) and continue to shift south through the rest of northeast Kansas overnight. Wind will be the primary hazard (60-70+ mph is possible) as well as heavy rain. Flooding would be highest west of HWY 77 where a couple inches are possible. Lows in the upper 60s-low 70s.

Tomorrow: The biggest uncertainty is how long the storms from overnight last into the day. Most short term models have the main storm system gone by sunrise with isolated showers/storms developing behind it through mid-morning, other models have the storm system slower leading to more widespread rain through mid-morning. Am leaning more toward the first scenario which will lead to mostly dry conditions during the day with gradual clearing. Highs will be closer to 90° with many spots in the upper 80s. Winds S 5-10 mph.

There will be another storm system late Thursday night into Friday morning and another one late Friday night into Saturday morning. Both of these systems are not expected to bring as widespread rain as tonight’s storm system so there will be some spots that remain dry. Most of the activity will be over by mid-morning at the latest leading to mostly dry conditions both Friday and Saturday.

Starting Sunday lasting into next week there remains uncertainty in the temperature forecast where one model heats temperatures up in the mid-upper 90s while the other model keeps highs more in the low 90s even upper 80s. Have opted to forecast more on the warmer side in the 8 day but be aware that the forecast is subject to change.

Taking Action:

1. Stay hydrated and safe in the heat
2. Monitor the storms in Nebraska this evening, that’s the best way to get the latest timing of when the storms will start to enter the WIBW viewing area as there still remains uncertainty on if it’ll be between 10pm-12am or closer to 1am.
3. There does remain uncertainty on the timing of the storms the next couple days, specifically how long the rain will last in the morning. Right now the highest chance for rain to linger longer into the morning hours would be on Thursday and Saturday not on Friday so any outdoor plans you may have you don’t need to cancel anything but be aware you may have to adjust them if storms linger longer than expected in an area.

Damaging winds main threat, hail is also possible(SPC/WIBW)

Any storms in the area between Thursday into Thursday night have a wind/hail risk(SPC/WIBW)

Threat mainly for storms late Friday night into early Saturday morning(SPC/WIBW)

Explanation of the 5 risks, and general thunderstorms. From the Storm Prediction Center.(WIBW)

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Wednesday forecast: Heat index values in the triple digits for many - WIBW
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