First Call: How to bet on Big Ben. Why some national guys won't. Bad options for his backup. - TribLIVE

In Wednesday’s “First Call,” we look at how you should — or shouldn’t — bet on some individual Pittsburgh Steelers.

One national take on the Steelers I like. One I don’t.

And the ugly reality of the NFL quarterback situation.

Who wants to bet big on Big Ben?

FoxBet.com has its individual betting lines out for NFL players. Here’s how it looks for a few Steelers.

For quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, his over-under for passing yards in 2020 is 3,999.5. The over-under for touchdowns is 27.5.

Want some perspective before you dip into your wallet?

On average for his career — subtracting last year’s two games — Roethlisberger posts 3,746 yards and 22 touchdowns.

Roethlisberger has six seasons of 28 or more touchdowns. Five of them have occurred from 2013-18. He also has six seasons of at least 4,000 passing yards — four times since the start of 2013.

I’m going to go under on both bets. Not necessarily because of the comps with his career averages. Those numbers are a bit deflated by his conservative rookie year and a few seasons where he only made 11-13 starts.

Injuries, besides a recurrence of his elbow problems, could come into play in 2020. Keep that in mind.

But I also think — and hope — the Steelers try to rely a little less on Roethlisberger “airing it out” after missing a full season thanks to the arm surgery.

And for him to throw at least 28 touchdowns — regardless of his own personal level of fitness — may be a bit ambitious given the level of acumen of his fellow offensive players.

By the way, in all six of Roethlisberger’s 4,000+-yard seasons, the Steelers failed to win a playoff game. In three of them, they didn’t even make the playoffs.

To the surprise of no one, the highest quarterback over-under numbers are for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

He’s got to go above 4,574.5 yards and 36.5 touchdowns to hit the over for folks who want to gamble on him.

Want a few more?

James Conner’s over-under for yards is 899.5. His touchdown total is 9.5. Conner had seven touchdowns last year. He had 13 in 2018. Give me the over on Conner’s touchdowns, the under on his yards. His career high for yards was 973 in 2018.

As for JuJu Smith-Schuster, he’s posting 91.5 receptions, 7.5 touchdowns, and 1,199.5 yards. Give me the under all around there.

Wright is wrong

I guess I’m not the only one dubious of Ben Roethlisberger returning to the gunslinger of old.

FS1’s Nick Wright had this to say about Roethlisberger’s return.

"What I expect out of Ben Roethlisberger is not much. He's a first ballot Hall of Famer, he's been to 3 Super Bowls, he's won 2. But he's 38. … I don't expect, even w/ a well-manicured beard & hype video, for Big Ben to be excellent or close to it this season." — @getnickwright pic.twitter.com/nbgxBcpwQp

— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) May 19, 2020

Well, I’m going to be a little more generous than that.

I think Roethlisberger and the Steelers can incorporate a “less with more” approach from the quarterback position and still be more effective.

We can gamble on his individual numbers. I just don’t care about them. I care about the team results. And a lesser Roethlisberger is still more than the Mason Rudolph-Devlin Hodges combo of 2019.

Mesh Roethlisberger with a healthy defense, hopefully an improved red zone squad, and a back-by-committee approach, and maybe they’ll have something at Heinz Field.

And by something, I mean at least 10 wins and a trip back to the playoffs.

Especially with most of the defense returning, too.

Who is left?

Worried about the Steelers’ depth at backup quarterback?

Yeah. Me, too. The Steelers better be right about Mason Rudolph improving. Because there aren’t many options on the veteran market. Take a look at this disturbing list of available free agents.

Skip by Cam Newton in the first slot. That ain’t happening unless Big Ben suffers a season-ending injury early in the year.

10 best veteran QB options in free agency for the Steelers https://t.co/uwa2k6GYCS

— Steelers Wire (@TheSteelersWire) May 19, 2020

Ick. Joe Webb? We’re still talking about Joe Webb?

And there’s still a McCown that’s an option. Who knew?!

I’d say go with Matt Moore. But knowing that Bud Dupree is still on the team, he may be afraid to come to practice.

Meh

Want a dose of Steelers optimism? Don’t look at Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com. He’s going from the bottom to the top of the NFL when it comes to ranking teams’ offseasons.

And he’s got the Steelers in the bottom half.

That said, Barnwell points out what most of us should admit.

1. Their cap situation didn’t allow for much big spending in free agency.

2. They didn’t have a first-round pick because of the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade. Unlike many Steelers fans, media, and front office members I come across, he’s not willing to spin that Fitzpatrick counts as two people at once.

Good.

With all that under consideration, Barnwell has the Steelers as the 20th best team in the NFL when it comes to offseason performance.

That’s essentially saying they didn’t have much to work with, and they didn’t do much with it. But, at least, they didn’t do anything dumb.

I’m going to agree with all of that.

Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@triblive.com or via Twitter. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication unless specified otherwise.

Categories: Sports | Steelers/NFL | Breakfast With Benz