Time is Bob Baffert’s ally. Time will tell if truth is his adversary.
Thoroughbred racing’s most accomplished trainer can afford to play the long game with drug testing. He can wait on Charlatan’s B sample to come back before committing his unbeaten colt to chasing the Triple Crown, and he can appeal the result if a second test comes back positive for lidocaine.
He can prolong the disciplinary process for many months or even years should doing so serve his purpose. He can run out the clock on Charlatan’s competitive career before sending him off to stud service with a reputation either slightly scuffed or totally trashed.
And he probably should.
To do otherwise would be to admit guilt and deprive NBC of a potential ratings bonanza for the Belmont Stakes and beyond. Whether Charlatan can remain unbeaten while Baffert’s barn faces the additional scrutiny of a flunked drug test from the Arkansas Derby figures to be the most compelling story line of this year's rescheduled 3-year-old classics.
You want to know whether Charlatan is a phenomenon or a fraud. You want to know whether Baffert deserves vindication or vilification.
“Let’s assume a positive (test) is going to come back,” bloodstock agent Ric Waldman said Wednesday. “I don’t know why (you) would withdraw unless the horse absolutely has to have the drug and is not that good without it. It could be that the horse is still a very good horse.
“I hope the horse runs in New York (in the Belmont), and I hope he wins. ... It could bring the horse’s credibility back.”
Source: 2 Bob Baffert horses test positive for banned substances during Oaklawn Park meet
To assume the second test will come back positive, of course, is to assume too much. “I have to keep reminding myself, ‘Let’s wait and see what the B sample says,’” said Staci Hancock, leader of the anti-drug Water Hay Oats Alliance.
Still, testing odds tend to favor confirmation over contradiction.
One racing executive, speaking on the condition of anonymity Wednesday, suggested that Charlatan’s owners might spare the sport some embarrassment by pulling the colt off the Triple Crown trail in the event of a second positive test. Failing that, the executive raised the possibility that the New York Racing Association might refuse to allow Charlatan to enter the Belmont.
Both of those scenarios appear highly improbable. Numerous owners have a financial stake in Charlatan, and the horse’s breeding rights are already committed to Hill ‘N’ Dale Farm. If Charlatan does not compete in the Triple Crown, and/or remove any doubts stemming from his lidocaine finding, the value of his stud services could be dramatically diminished.
Were NYRA to deny him that opportunity, it would likely lead to unpromising litigation. Moreover, there’s the little matter of due process.
Even if Charlatan’s B sample confirms the A sample’s findings, Baffert is entitled to an appeal. Since the trainer is represented by W. Craig Robertson, who fought a penalty against trainer Graham Motion for nearly five years and all the way to the Kentucky Supreme Court, the road to resolution could be lengthy.
“That’s the process,” Oaklawn Park owner Louis Cella said Wednesday. “Those are today’s procedures. I think it’s quite similar in American jurisprudence. I don’t have a problem with appealing. That is their right. At one point down the road there will be finality.”
Read more: A look at the possible field for the 2020 Belmont Stakes on June 20
Cella expressed confidence the Arkansas Racing Commission would deal with Charlatan’s case with a level of transparency conspicuously missing from the California Horse Racing Board’s deliberations about the positive drug test of Baffert’s 2018 Triple Crown winner, Justify.
In truth, the Arkansas commission has little choice in the matter now that it has been made public. Baffert’s exalted stature and the perception that he benefits from a double standard have intensified media attention and prompted racing fans to establish battle lines on social media.
“If we in the thoroughbred industry can’t police ourselves ... then there is no such thing as integrity; integrity has an asterisk next to its name,” Waldman said. “You have to be pure.
“And I like Baffert. I don’t want any of this to be true, but it clearly is true. It’s been speculated by a lot of people in the industry over the years (that) he’s gotten away with murder. I’m sure his competitors are high-fiving themselves.”
Time is on Baffert's side. Truth is waiting on the B sample to come back.
Tim Sullivan: 502-582-4650, tsullivan@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @TimSullivan714. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/tims.
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