Tiz the Law is still the leader, but the name of the poll has changed.
When we started this back in February, we called this the Derby Dozen. It was our list of the top 12 horses headed to the Kentucky Derby.
And then it all changed. The Kentucky Derby was rescheduled to Sept. 5 because of the coronavirus pandemic and, last week, the New York Racing Association announced that the Belmont Stakes would be run on June 20. The $1 million Belmont, for the first time, now starts the Triple Crown with the Derby and Preakness (Oct. 3) to follow.
Now, we call our poll the Triple Crown Dozen, because it makes no sense to call it the Derby Dozen.
I have been backing Sackatoga Stable's Tiz the Law as the best 3-year-old and I am not going to change now as we head to the Belmont. The New York-bred son of Constitution has done nothing wrong since the season started. He has two wins, including the Grade I Florida Derby, and has had seven works since, including the latest, five furlongs in 59.75 seconds at Palm Meadows in Florida last Sunday.
He'll have one more work down south before shipping to Belmont Park next week. If all goes well, he'll have two works at his home track before the Belmont. He has won off layoffs before, he can do it again.
"I haven't seen anything yet that didn't suit him," trainer Barclay Tagg said. "He always seems to handle things."
Since this poll last appeared, there have been three major developments. The most recent came Thursday when it was announced that the unbeaten Nadal, trained by Bob Baffert, has been retired after fracturing his left front leg during a workout at Santa Anita. He had successful surgery and is expected to make a complete recovery.
I had Nadal second behind Tiz the Law. His retirement makes me feel more confident about Tiz the Law.
"(Nadal) is the kind of horse tough enough to handle all three (Triple Crown) races," Baffert said. "It's a shame. All we can do now is move forward."
Another Baffert runner, Charlatan, the runaway winner of the first division of the Arkansas Derby, came back with a positive test for a banned substance. Published reports said that Baffert may run him in the $150,000 Woody Stephens at seven furlongs on the Belmont undercard. Now, he could be back on target for the Belmont. Stay tuned.
A new contender emerged last weekend when Maxfield, who would not have been ready for the Triple Crown had it stayed with its original schedule, ran an impressive race in winning the Grade III Matt Winn at Churchill Downs by a length.
Maxfield was making his first start since last October. He missed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with an ankle injury and then had a chip taken out, causing him to be taken off the Triple Crown trail. Now, Maxfield is a horse — and there will be more — that will emerge as a contender because of the extra time before the Classic races start.
"To me, it looks like a very strong year," Maxfield's trainer Brendan Walsh said about this crop of 3-year-olds. "There are some quality horses. If you asked 10 different people who is the best, you would get 10 different opinions."
twilkin@timesunion.com • 518-454-5415 • @tjwilkin
Rank (Prev.) Horse Trainer Jockey Comment
1 (1). Tiz the Law Barclay Tagg Manny Franco Is the best on the East Coast, will ship to New York this week and get ready for the 1 1/8-mile Belmont Stakes on June 20 at his home track, still no reason to remove him from top spot.
2 (3). Charlatan Bob Baffert Martin Garcia Might end up being Baffert's best, rolled by six lengths to win first division of Arkansas Derby, but tested positive after, could end up in Belmont.
3 (4). Authentic Bob Baffert Drayden Van Dyke Unbeaten in three starts and runs next in rescheduled Santa Anita Derby on June 6, will be first start since San Felipe on March 7.
4 (5). Honor A.P. John Shirreffs Mike Smith Very impressive when finishing second to Authentic in San Felipe, which was first start since breaking maiden in October, may be horse to beat in Santa Anita Derby.
5. (6) King Guillermo Juan Carlos Avila Samy Camacho Proved Tampa Bay Derby win at 49-1 was no fluke after a solid second to Nadal in Arkansas, the plan is to train the horse up to the Kentucky Derby Sept. 5, that's 14 weeks!
6. (10). Maxfield Brendan Walsh Jose Ortiz Won Matt Winn last Saturday in first start in 231 days and stayed unbeaten in three starts, major player now, hadn't run since a 5 1/2-length romp in Keeneland's Futurity last October, extra time to Derby will benefit him and more than a few others.
7. (7). Sole Volante Patrick Biancone Luca Panici Hasn't been seen since settling for second in Tampa Bay Derby with big, late run; look for him to run in the Belmont.
8 (8). Ete Indian Patrick Biancone Florent Geroux No match for Tiz the Law when third in Florida Derby in latest start, did get cut on hind leg and lost a shoe if you're looking for an excuse, is looking at Jersey's Haskell July 18 as next start.
9. (9) Basin Steve Asmussen Ricardo Santana Jr. Last year's Hopeful winner was distant second to Charlatan in first division of Arkansas Derby, starting to get into the picture.
10. (11) Gouverneur Morris Todd Pletcher John Velazquez Did not pose a challenge to Charlatan when third in Arkansas, still looking for him to pop a big one in 3-year-old season, will try again in Belmont.
11 (NR) Enforceable Mark Casse Julien Leparoux Last seen running third in Louisiana Derby March 21, will run twice before the Derby, per Casse, but not in the Belmont.
12. (NR). NY Traffic Saffie Joseph Jr. Paco Lopez Had hit the board in past three graded stakes, including a second in Grade III Matt Winn, will go in either Belmont, Haskell at Monmouth July 18 or Keeneland's Blue Grass on July 11 next.
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Tiz the Law tops renamed Triple Crown rankings - Times Union
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